Sports Analytics
Football match prediction, team rankings, and win probability using Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with crossed random effects.
Why Bayesian for Sports Analytics?
Sports data has natural hierarchical structure (players within teams, matches within seasons) that benefits from Bayesian modeling:
- Crossed random effects separate team quality into attack and defense components
- Posterior predictive simulation provides probabilistic league tables and win probabilities
- Shrinkage estimation produces stable team rankings even with limited match data
- Uncertainty quantification distinguishes genuine differences from sampling variation